CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-08-01T07:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32420/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an M8.2 flare and eruption from Active Region 13768 (S15W80) starting around 2024-08-01T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible in GOES SUVI 171, 195, and 284 imagery at this time as well. Arrival: there is a clear ICME arrival signatures with a shock (according to analysis by the LASSOS team (Carlos Perez Alanis). During the shock B total reaches 19.5 nT and density gets increased to 20p/cc, followed by a period of significant negative Bz reaching -17nT. This signature of ICME shock is preceded by a less clear disturbance in the magnetic field at L1 with Btotal increasing from 8nT at 2024-08-04T04:48Z to 15nT at 06:11Z followed by a protracted period of negative Bz.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-04T13:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-03T21:50Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1100.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 642.900 Acceleration: 0.228331 Duration in seconds: 224771.97 Duration in days: 2.6015275 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.23 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 694.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 03/08/2024 Time: 21:50 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 47.93 hour(s)
Difference: 15.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-08-02T13:25Z
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